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【中/英】重复借款人变身P2P平台忠实“回头客”

2015-07-15

重复借款人就类似于其他行业中的回头客,它的存在证明了替代贷款方式目前的健康发展态势。在投资者看来,由市场提供资金的贷款是一种非常有吸引力的资产类别,但是,只有使借款人同时受益,这种贷款类型才算的上是真正的成功。

Repeat borrowers, analogous to repeat customers in other industries, provide a healthy indicator that alternative lending is here to stay. Marketplace-funded loans have proven to be an attractive asset class from the investors’ point of view but, it would not be a true success unless it were benefitting the borrowers as well.


在本篇文章中,我们将对重复借款人进行分析,看看他们在首次贷款和随后的贷款中账户资料都发生了什么变化。如果他们首次贷款取得了良好的收益,那么我们预计借款人在之后的贷款中能够获得更合理的利率。我们特别地使用了Prosper的公开数据,将各位重复借款人的首次贷款与第二次贷款进行比较。

In this post, we’ll take a look at repeat borrowers and how their profiles change between the times of their initial and succeeding loans. Assuming they performed well on their first loans, we would expect to see borrowers getting better deals on subsequent loans. Specifically, to keep it consistent for all repeat borrowers, we compared their first loan to their second loan using Prosper’s public listing data.


首先,我们比较的是重复借款人贷款的平均贷款数据:

First, we compare the average loan profiles between the repeat borrowers’ loans:


数据结果看起来不错。首次借款成功之后,借款人能够以更低的利率获得更多的贷款,并且似乎在处理财政问题上,他们也表现得更好了,收入平均增长了大约5%,FICO指数增加了大约9个点。而这是怎样反应在他们的贷款评级上的呢?我们将在下文一起比较贷款评级的分布:

These statistics are promising. Borrowers are able to secure larger loans with lower interest rates. Financially, they seem to be doing better too. Their income has increased on average around 5% and their FICO has increased by about 9 points. How is this reflected in their loan ratings? Below, we compare the distribution of ratings side by side:


我们发现,同早前的研究相一致的是,借款人的第二次贷款都得到了较低风险的评级。尤其是AA贷款所占的比重相较于首次贷款加倍了。虽然这表明上述贷款风险评级更低了,但并没有表明借款人是怎样过渡到这一新的贷款分布状况的。为了弄清楚这些,我们可以参照一项称作热图的数字可视化技术图。

Consistent with our earlier findings, we can see a shift towards less risky ratings for the borrower’s second loan. In particular, the percentage of AA loans has doubled compared to their first loans. Although this shows that the distribution has shifted towards lower risk ratings, it does not show how borrower’s transitioned to this new distribution. To see this, we can look at a data visualization technique called a heat map.


该矩阵表明借款人第一次贷款到第二次贷款的贷款评级变化趋势。左边绘制的是首次贷款评级,下边绘制的是第二次贷款评级。要分析表中的数据,首先看左边的首次贷款评级,然后在下边找第二次贷款评级。每一行加起来都是100%,颜色较深的方块表明有更多的借款人选择该贷款评级。例如,第一次获得AA评级的借款人中(从左看向右),大约60%在第二次评级中获得了AA,20%获得了A,10%获得了B等等。

This matrix shows the movement of loan ratings from the borrower’s first loan to their second. Their initial rating is plotted along the left while their new rating is plotted along the bottom. To read the plot, start with their first loan rating on the left and find their second loan rating on the bottom. Each row sums up to 100% and the darker colored squares show a higher density of borrowers. For example, of the borrower’s who received an AA rating their first time (reading left to right), roughly 60% received an AA rating the second time, 20% received A, 10% received B, etc.


我们可以从该图表中得出几个重点:

There are a few key points we can infer from this graph:


我们发现评级的变化更像是一个分布图,而不是一个严格意义上的评级升级版。

We see that the movement of ratings is more of a distribution rather than a strict upgrade.


如果借款人保持相同的风险评级,我们就会沿着对角线,看到一条深绿色的直线,然而在这张图中,我们看到的是一个平稳的分布图,重心稍稍向图表的左上方倾斜。这表明,借款人第二次获得了更低的风险评级。

If borrowers all kept the same rating, we would see a dark green line along the diagonal. However, here we are seeing an even distribution with the concentration slightly more towards the top-left of the graph. This indicates that the borrowers have been given less riskier ratings the second time.


如果借款人先前拥有HR级别的贷款,那么第二次贷款分布图的重心主要集中在C级。

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